Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 3.107667 3.341377 3.603574 3.924125 4.312306 4.777123 5.392895
2025-02-23 2.726322 3.010735 3.350169 3.798025 4.396388 5.210133 6.498214
2025-03-02 2.546167 2.863394 3.258778 3.811132 4.610713 5.832470 8.181342
2025-03-09 2.408180 2.743164 3.173941 3.802326 4.772985 6.419588 10.327175
2025-03-16 2.278138 2.616954 3.061833 3.730442 4.813153 6.808467 12.604261
2025-03-23 2.217378 2.573670 3.053826 3.803765 5.098539 7.798420 19.472029
2025-03-30 2.111544 2.461262 2.937673 3.694055 5.037666 8.011738 24.772183
2025-04-06 2.014988 2.355392 2.822491 3.572411 4.931208 8.072845 30.783364
2025-04-13 1.942056 2.277796 2.742494 3.498664 4.902606 8.335931 47.413300
2025-04-20 1.914005 2.260234 2.747969 3.564137 5.161153 9.615910 NaN
2025-04-27 1.905824 2.269405 2.792889 3.700718 5.607586 12.154400 NaN
2025-05-04 1.866599 2.231941 2.763773 3.703235 5.753944 13.790232 NaN
2025-05-11 1.832400 2.201689 2.746258 3.729706 5.981903 16.678497 NaN
2025-05-18 1.770906 2.129284 2.658748 3.618006 5.830640 16.682182 NaN
2025-05-25 1.739738 2.099944 2.637697 3.629913 6.015663 20.427465 NaN
2025-06-01 1.706896 2.066613 2.608098 3.621979 6.145707 25.025125 NaN
2025-06-08 1.665205 2.018543 2.552152 3.557103 6.093863 27.094525 NaN
2025-06-15 1.651303 2.011189 2.561759 3.623278 6.464262 49.136316 NaN
2025-06-22 1.607838 1.957894 2.493155 3.524209 6.277168 46.299903 NaN
2025-06-29 1.564225 1.903361 2.420865 3.413982 6.040468 39.844516 NaN
2025-07-06 1.530470 1.862936 2.370746 3.346961 5.940200 41.189442 NaN
2025-07-13 1.521446 1.859507 2.381674 3.406470 6.279599 139.166136 NaN
2025-07-20 1.523447 1.872758 2.421028 3.530234 6.913839 NaN NaN